Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening. Some say home prices are heading for a correction, but what do the facts say? Well, it helps to start by looking at what a correction means.
Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says:
“In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don't have the same established definitions in the housing market.”
In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level.
From 2020 to 2022, home prices skyrocketed. That rapid increase was due to high demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of homes for sale. But, that kind of aggressive growth couldn’t continue forever.
Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below):
The big takeaway? So far this year, there’s been a much healthier pace of price growth compared to the pandemic.
Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real Estate Investments, says:
“Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.”
It’s all about supply and demand. Increasing inventory plus limited buyer demand, due to relatively high mortgage rates, will continue to ease some of the upward pressure on prices.
If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced-out.
While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:
“While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn't boarded up just yet.”
At the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out.
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. The Home Run Team, Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. The Home Run Team, Ltd. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or… Read more
Are you on the fence about whether to sell your house now or hold off? It’s a common dilemma, but here’s a key point to consider: your lifestyle might be the biggest f… Read more
With the new year coming around, the housing market is sure to change. Here's what the forecasts are saying for 2025.
If you’re thinking about downsizing, you may be hearing about 55+ communities and wondering if they’d be a good fit for you. Here’s some information that could help.
There are many mistakes a homeowner can make when selling their house. Here are the top 4.
If you've been watching the house market recently, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing?
Thinking about buying a home? Here's how mortgage rates can change your purchasing power.
Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.
You’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.
We're here to help people live wealthier lives and enjoy more freedom by educating and guiding them through their lifelong real estate journey. Whether you're buying a home, looking to sell or relocate, or are an investor, we can help you. No agents will work harder for you, because to us, going to bat for you, isn't work. That's just what you do when you're a team.