If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did drop some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a ‘unicorn’ year when prices peaked well beyond the norm.
To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.
The graphs below use recent monthly reports from three sources to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.
Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.
The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says this about home price trends:
“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument.”
Experts believe one of the reasons prices didn’t crash like some expected is because there aren’t enough available homes for the number of people who want to buy them. Even with today’s mortgage rates, there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available for sale.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains how more demand than supply keeps upward pressure on prices:
“History has shown that higher rates may take the steam out of rising prices, but it doesn’t cause them to collapse entirely. This is especially true in today’s housing market, where the demand for homes continues to outpace supply, keeping the pressure on house prices."
Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, states home price growth is exceeding expectations thanks to that high demand:
“. . . housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected . . . Housing’s performance is a testimony to the strength of demographic-related demand . . .”
If you delayed your moving plans because you were concerned about home prices dropping, the latest data reveals the worst is already over, and prices are appreciating nationally. Let's get in touch so you know what's happening with home prices in our area.
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. The Home Run Team, Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. The Home Run Team, Ltd. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
Have you been saving up to buy a home this year? If so, you know there are a number of expenses involved.
If you've recently retired or are about to, saving money where you can has a lot of appeal. Downsizing is one way to do that.
Affordability is still tight. And if you’re trying to buy a home, that may mean you need to look at smaller houses to find one that’s still in your budget.
When mortgage rates spiked up over the last few years, some homeowners put their plans to move on pause. But is that still the right strategy for you?
Expert advice from a trusted real estate agent is priceless, now more than ever. And here’s why.
If you have student loans and want to buy a home, you might have questions about how your debt affects your plans. Here’s a look at the latest information.
Looking to buy a home? Don't navigate the process alone. Here are the top 5 reasons why hiring an agent is a game-changer.
Have you heard the term “Silver Tsunami” getting tossed around recently? If so, here’s what you really need to know.
Are you thinking about making a move? If so, now may be the perfect time to start the process.
We're fortunate to be able to do what we want to do every day, and what we want to do is help clients live a better, more secure life. Whether you're buying a home, looking to sell or relocate, or are an investor, we can help you. No agents will work harder for you, because to us, going to bat for you, isn't work. That's just what you do when you're a team.