Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?
Have you ever heard the term “Silver Tsunami” and wondered what it's all about? If so, that might be because there’s been lot of talk about it online recently. Let's dive into what it is and why it won't drastically impact the housing market.
A recent article from HousingWire calls it:
“. . . a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging . . .”
The thought is that as baby boomers grow older, a significant number will start downsizing their homes. Considering how large that generation is, if these moves happened in a big wave, it would affect the housing market by causing a significant uptick in the number of larger homes for sale. That influx of homes coming onto the market would impact the balance of supply and demand and more.
The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when?
Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won't anytime soon. According to that same article from HousingWire:
“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon.”
Here’s just one reason why. Many baby boomers don’t want to move. Data from the AARP shows over half of the surveyed adults ages 65 and up plan to stay put and age in place in their current home rather than move (see chart below):
Clearly, not every baby boomer is planning to sell or move – and even those who do won’t do it all at once. Instead, it will be more gradual, happening slowly over time. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they're going to take about two decades to work their way through.”
If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Fleming sums it up best:
“Demographic trends, they don't tsunami. They trickle.”
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. The Home Run Team, Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. The Home Run Team, Ltd. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
Expect a continued difficult, but busier housing market
One of the biggest questions on everyone’s minds right now is: when will mortgage rates come down?
Historically, the number of homes for sale tends to drop during the cooler months – and that means buyers have fewer options to choose from.
When asking yourself whether or not you should sell as is, consider these pros and cons.
Most sellers completed at least minor repairs when selling their house. But sometimes life gets in the way and that’s just not possible.
You may have seen online that people are upset with investors "buying all the homes." But that's not exactly true.
If you're looking to buy, but you're waiting for mortgage rates to come down, try to focus on what you can control.
With the holidays right around the corner, homeowners planning to move have a decision to make: sell now or wait?
Chances are you’re hearing a lot about mortgage rates right now, and all you really want to hear is that they’re coming back down.
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